Sunday, May 15, 2005

Do you see what I see?


James Enck - EuroTecoblog



Deutsche Telekom results today - messy, confusing (IFRS restatements, new reporting structure, reclassifications of all sorts of data), and not terribly inspiring. The main area of interest from the point of view of this bloglet is an apparent doubling in the rate of decline in PSTN/ISDN lines (-400k) in the quarter, for an annualized rate of 4.4%. Management were frank in admitting that DSL unbundlers are pressurizing the voice market, as I expected already. Sipgate's 100k, plus maybe 300 - 400k on Freenet/United Internet VoIP products, plus another c.1.4m Skype accounts (and whatever number may be using DT's own VoIP product). Whatever double-counting may be involved here, I think it's safe to say that we're probably looking at a market of at least 2m VoIP users, or nearly 1/3 of the broadband users in the country.

And we're just getting started: hot on the heels of its partnership with debitel, QSC today acquired celox, which expands its footprint to 1000 central offices in 100 German cities. I'm left wondering how long it will be before another PTT decides to move into Germany, either organically, or more likely through acquisition. IP services are the new 3G (albeit with lower barriers to entry and less capex), and DT is in the game, though the game in France may have just gotten a lot tougher. How DT gains 15 - 20% of a market where the top three control 89% is a tough question to answer with hard work alone. Any guesses what 20Mbps in France will cost this time next year?

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